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Thursday, September 30, 2004

First Spins

Former journalist turned gas giant Jeff Greenfield is doling out the praise with a tea spoon, generally in the right direction but not acknowledging the magnitude of the slaughter here. Over to the Enemy now. The usual suspects on Fox. But they look nervous. Kristol is reluctantly admitting that Kerry held his own, which is all we can expect. Look up "begrudging" in the dictionary and you'll see Kristol's picture from this clip.

Brit Hume, whose dourness makes Kerry look like Ronald McDonald by comparison, goes to a clip where Bush sighs and stumbles. Was that in the Memo? Not many highlights to pick from if you're a Bush fan, I guess.

Back now to CNN. Greenfield again, starting to warm to the idea of Kerry coming across as significantly more presidential. Then we get this Carlos guy. What debate did he watch?

On MSNBC, Matthews is again hosting the best panel on cable. Andrea Mitchell is especially good. First cut it to Mike McCurry (Kerry's man). Not the best choice (Lockhart's better), but at least he gets his message out. On this night, the surrogates are not going to be as strong as the man at the top of the ticket. It sounds like they caught Bush in a gaffe with regard to his tax cut. Interesting, and very quick on the uptake.

Now, someone makes the point that Bush looks like he doesn't want to be there. That's going to be a big spin tomorrow. It was so blindingly obvious. The moronic Scarborough is now making the case for Bush's inarticulateness.

Wesley Clark on CNN - a serious man for a serious night. Good choice from the Kerry team for the topic of the evening. Wolf is at the door with the usual stupid questions. Clark is good, but the Kerry folks are at a real risk of having their own spin overshadow their candidate's virtuoso performance. There's a time to chatter and a time to shut up and admire your work.
7:55:21 PM    Emphasize This! []


The Home Stretch

The African genocide question gives Bush a chance to sound human. He digs into it like a starving man going after a steak. Now we're on to the Kerry character question. Another softball for Bush that lets him catch his breath. But the honeymoon is short lived. The humanity drains away in a downpour of scripted spin.

Kerry is licking his chops. This is his chance to sound more human as well. So far, very graceful. Now he's going to the heart of the matter. "You can be certain and be wrong." Yes! Finally! Not acknowledging the truth of science. "Certainty can get you in trouble." And, ka-pow! A 30-second sum-up of his Iraq position.

Now we're on to nuclear proliferation - a radioactive issue for Bush, given his slack record here. Kerry's putting the boot in again, fact after fact after fact. Any pundit who calls this for Bush is on crack or on the payroll. Bush is staggered. Back on his heels, answering the question as Kerry has defined it. Now he's stumbling around, in the hostile territory of policy and detail. He's run through his short list of bullet points and starting to repeat himself.

Bush is whining again, on the minutea of Korea policy.

Finally, on to Russia. "Did you misjudge Putin, Mr. President." Wait, here's news - Bush thinks there should be checks and balances in a democracy! Well, who says he never changes his mind? Oh, wait, he's talking about Russia - never mind. Then he goes on about the importance of good personal relationships with foreign leaders. The camera's not on Kerry, but I hope he's shaking his head and writing like mad.

Kerry seems to know Russia. Convincing and presidential. He gets his licks in andhas time to go back and squeeze his nuts in a vise over Korea and Bush's shabby credibility in one blast. This is really getting ugly. I hope they have a stretcher and some smelling salts for Bush in the spin room.
7:27:43 PM    Emphasize This! []


The Hammer Comes Down

This is a clinic. Kerry has been pacing himself, not launching flurries, but building his case point by point. He's using the advantage that comes from actually understanding the words that are coming out of your mouth.

Bush is now making a point about the International Criminal Court. In the cutaway, Kerry is taking notes. I hope he says, you have nothing to fear from an international court if you're not a war criminal. Regrettably, no follow up.

Now we're wandering into the swampland of North Korean diplomacy. This is a loser all around, but Bush is now holding the bag because it's been his watch. Bush is in "my pet goat" mode right now - treating the country as the world's largest kindergarten class. He's obviously rehearsed this.

Kerry's turn now. "We could do better." Right. Keep on that - it's a winner. "The president's done nothing." "Now, the real story." Good, punchy sentences - no knockouts, but one quick jab after another. "Bewildered and embarrassed." Great image. Sums up the disaster on the Korean peninsula in 90 seconds. Man, he's good.

Bush is on slow burn. Now Kerry just laughed in his face. He must have rehearsed that look - "I pity this poor man in his ignorance." Classic.
7:08:11 PM    Emphasize This! []


Debate: On Message

Despite all the evidence, it appears that someone in the Kerry campaign actually understands how to get a message across. Kerry is loud and clear: Bush doesn't know what he's doing. Every word he says is backing it up, but he doesn't sound like he's hammering home a spin point. This is quite a performance. Bush, of course, is playing right into his hands. Unlike Kerry, he uses the same words over and over again. He's really out of control.

New drinking game phrase: "Hard Work." Bush has said it at least 15 times so far, but there's still 40 minutes left - more than enough time to get hammered.
6:53:30 PM    Emphasize This! []


Kerry Smells Blood

Kerry's explaining how Bush lied. He's clearly gaining strength, and Bush clearly can't wait for this to be over. Kerry is speaking crisply and briefly. His seriousness is carrying the day. Bush is fighting on his ground, trying to be grim. No hint of "folksy charm.' Bush sounds incoherent now. This is the voice of someone who only talks to people who agree with him. It is shocking that his people haven't prepared him better. He's about to fall apart. Now he's mouthing campaign slogans and their insincerity bites like tin foil on the back teeth in an honest discussion.

I pity the spinmeisters who have to go out with a straight face and say Bush "held his own" in this debate. America is getting a pretty clear picture.
6:45:27 PM    Emphasize This! []


Debate Update: That Giant Sucking Sound

Kerry is orating, which isn't great. But Bush is whining. Conspicuously. Petulantly. And unconvincingly. He is staggeringly defensive and unconvincing. This is starting to look like the kind of performance that Kerry could only hope for. Kerry hasn't landed a knockout yet, but Bush hardly needs help crumpling to the floor at this point.
6:45:25 PM    Emphasize This! []


Debate: Opening Round

Kerry appears relaxed and confident in his opening. The tip to Florida was classy, and it showed he's not afraid to waste a few seconds of his time. Now to Bush. first words out of his mouth are Spetember 11th. I'm glad I'm not in a drinking game here. All the familiar soundbites. The man knows how to stay on message, I'll give him that. But he clearly looks a little nervous.

Next question to Bush is interesting. He replies with platitutdes, as usual, but he is holding the camera fairly well. Kerry's landing some good points. If it keeps going like this, we'll all be sound asleep by the end.

Food is here. Will post more in a few.
6:14:00 PM    Emphasize This! []


CNN Pre-Debate Gabfest

If my TV survives this debate without getting something heavy thrown at it, it will not be to CNN's credit. My God, these people are idiots! They're not leaving the Daily Show much room for parody here.
5:43:48 PM    Emphasize This! []


Debate Blogging in Real Time In a few minutes, I'm going to try an experiment in blogging the debate in real time, using the "mail to blog" feature of the heinous blogging software that supports this site. This is a test post. Actual blogging will begin shortly.
5:33:59 PM    Emphasize This! []

The Bush Second Term Agenda: Social Regimentation

The primal motivation for many Movement Conservatives is a visceral hatred of the Sixties (e.g., 1966-1979), when their most cherished notions of social order nearly collapsed. Putting the genie of “excessive freedom” back into the bottle and reinstating some forms of social regimentation remains a key priority, even 40 years after the fact. For some, this means codifying repressive and reactionary measures into law, diminishing personal freedom in areas such as sexuality and reproductive rights and increasing the authority of socially-regimented institutions such as fundamentalist Christianity, the military, and corporate control over the economy. For others, it simply means threatening to do so, in a way that chills and discourages further dissent.

 

While some boomers look on the sixties with fondness and nostalgia, to Movement Conservatives, they were a terrifying period when the certainties and privileges of American economic and social elites came under intense attack. Political institutions that protected the primacy of wealthy white men crumbled and were replaced with a mass of government-mandated programs and enforcement of rights for women and minorities. Economic policies favored income distribution over accumulation of enormous wealth. Foreign policy retrenched from the aggrandizement of American power in the wake of the failure in Vietnam. But most damagingly, the social barriers that enforced distinctions between the economic classes suffered a near-fatal bout of democratization, thanks in large part to an irreverent and sexually-liberated popular culture.

 

The situation stabilized during the 1980s, but then threatened a flashback under the leadership of President Clinton, a kind of Boomer antichrist who was positively gleeful in his betrayal of his own Southern, white class interest and embrace of the most objectionable aspects of the sixties (e.g., feminism, in the form of Hillary). It is, I think, the incense and peppermint smell of the Clintons that triggered the peculiarly psychotic reaction by the Right to what was, in essence, a fairly moderate set of policies. Remember, the key issue for the Movement is the preservation of privilege and authority, and the Clinton persona was much more threatening to them in that dimension than his political program may have appeared on the surface.

 

One might imagine that the negative impact of democratization during the sixties would be of concern only to a relative few at the top, who saw their privileges and power decline. In fact, as is abundantly clear in our Red States, its most profound and disturbing impact was among the lower middle class and upwardly-aspiring suburban families. Conservative economic elites who could cry all the way to the bank about their loss of privileged social status; for wide swaths of rural and working class America, however, the vague notion of superior virtue and “values” is all that separates them from the despised, faceless ranks of the poor. These are folks who daily face the most de-humanizing forms of economic, cultural and commercial exploitation. Their communities are leached of character by cookie-cutter housing developments and chain-store shopping complexes. They are far from the cultural centers on the coasts, or from the scenes of 24-hour hedonism and excitement portrayed in the media, which raise unmeetable expectations and perhaps embarrass them in the eyes of their children. Understandably, they make a virtue of their circumstances, priding themselves on a superior sense of self-discipline, honor, duty and patriotism. These values, and the importance they attach to them, help to compensate for the lack of material, intellectual, and cultural resources of their social and physical surroundings.

 

Sixties ideas that challenged the worthiness of those values hit these folks where they lived. Far more than threatening their economic or political interests, liberation ideology threatened their entire sense of self. If self-discipline was merely inhibition, and duty, honor and love of country all hypocritical conceits, then what lifted them above the pathetic masses all striving for, and largely failing to achieve, material success? Rather than reconcile this contradiction through positive action, a great many folks retrenched into a deeper conservatism, substituting the facile certainties of fundamentalist religious faith (and fundamentalist politics) for the troubling realities of a complex and confusing world. This predilection for denial and self-delusion made them excellent foot-soldiers in a Movement that depended on obedience to mystical authority and ideology as its means of gaining power.

 

While many people derive strength and generosity of character from their faith, a significant and visible number use it to externalize their inner fears by stirring up fear and hatred against others. Religion gives their ugly ideas a patina of piety and the weight of tradition. Believers, already aggrieved by the perceived affront to their values represented by social liberalism, are thus easily roused to action behind profoundly irrational and divisive causes, from creationism to intolerance of minorities and gay sexuality. The emotional appeals of these kinds of issues conveniently drown out political interests that align more closely to their economic circumstances. This makes it possible to incorporate this large, passionate and profoundly ideological constituency into a coalition with the much smaller but self-interested core of Movement Conservatives with diametrically-opposed economic interests, each in their own way dedicated to the overthrow of the Liberal (and liberal) state.

 

The short version of the preceding six thick paragraphs is that Bush will owe his re-election to a bunch of frustrated, hateful crazies. This isn’t news. But it does have some obvious implications for the country as Bush will feel much obligation and little constraint to furnish these wackos with a steady stream of policy plums, from right-wing judges (and Justices) to insane and irrelevant Constitutional amendments, to executive orders that cripple the ability of government to deliver health, education and social services in a rational and responsible way.

 

That said, it seems to me that Bush and his inner circle have more to gain by the continual promise of reactionary social policies than by actually enacting any of them. No one with skin in the game really has any stake in making abortion illegal, or having prayer in schools, or in criminalizing (to the extent possible) homosexual lifestyles. Indeed, probably a lot of elite conservatives are “closet” social liberals who either enjoy or need the benefits of social tolerance in their own lives. It’s also clear that Movement Conservatives benefit from keeping popular anger at liberals at a constant boil. Anyone with any sense understands the kind of chaos and misery that would occur should, for example, Roe vs. Wade be overturned, and what kinds of forces might be unleashed as a result.

 

Furthermore, the threat of imposing a reactionary social agenda on the country may be enough to distract liberals while other, more damaging abuses are occurring behind the scenes. In other words, by poking at the outer edges of social policy, the most cynical Movement Conservatives can, in effect, herd the opposition into a defensive posture in the middle, where they pose little threat to the real power agenda.

 

What remains unclear is Bush’s own commitment to the far Right social agenda. His career to date and his family history indicate a willingness to play footsie with the true crazies to realize his other ambitions, but a characteristic lack of follow-through when it comes to the challenging parts. However, “9/11 changed everything,” including, most visibly, the Commander-in-Chief’s command of his own faculties. It is possible that the experience of the past three years has led him to a genuine embrace of fundamentalist habits of mind, rather than a convincing act based on a combination of political theatre and his own intellectual limitations. If that’s the case, then we have much, much greater cause for alarm.

 

Tomorrow: Reconstruction of the International Order.


7:42:21 AM    Emphasize This! []

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