The Big Question
Reaganite Dick Wirthlin raises an interesting point on today’s New York Times Op-Ed page, suggesting that Kerry may be planning to use Ronald Reagan’s famous question from 1980 – “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” – to devastating effect against George W. Bush. Wirthlin argues, rather unconvincingly in my estimation, that Bush should (and, more problematically, can) “inoculate himself in a venue widely viewed by voters, at a time of his own choosing.”
Easier said than done. The problem with the Big Question is that is has so many nasty dimensions. “Better off” is vague, but consider this:
- Do you feel safer than you were four years ago?
- Is your financial position as good as it was four years ago?
- Do you feel as good about your job and your prospects as you did four years ago?
- Are your kids getting a better education than they were four years ago?
- Is your health care coverage better than it was four years ago?
- Is the environment cleaner? Big corporations more responsible?
By practically any measure, the quality of life for average Americans has declined. Needless to say, not all of this is Bush’s fault. Of course, many of the problems of the late 70s weren’t Jimmy Carter’s fault either, but he, like Bush, could plausibly be accused of not doing all he could to fix them, or simply not having the right approach and mindset to do what was necessary. For better or worse, when our elections turn on “issues” rather than sideshow personal attacks, this is how people judge.
I have been waiting all spring and summer for Kerry to start asking these questions in precisely this way. It’s the classic challenger strategy when things are bad, and it forces Bush to explain and make excuses (as he has been doing on the economy since 2002), stripping him of some of the advantages of incumbency. And frankly, some of the questions have no good answers for Bush. Wirthlin can pontificate about rhetorical tactics, but that doesn’t solve the substantive problem.
So far, the stock Republican answer to all attempts to make unfavorable comparisons of the present with the go-go 90s is that “9/11 changed everything.” There are three main problems with this.
- It’s only partially true. The attack was probably beyond anyone’s control, but our response to it has been driven by political imperatives far more than by prudent policy. There is plenty of room to disagree about the effectiveness of our response and the success (or lack thereof) Bush has had in mitigating the economic repercussions three years after the event.
- It’s getting old. Republicans have been using this line since 9/12, and it has lost meaning in repetition, especially when it is used in such absurd contexts as trying to justify the ban on importing cheaper drugs from Canada.
- Most damagingly, like most hard realities, it’s pessimistic. 9/11 was terrifying. It’s human nature to want to put that behind us, go on with life as usual, even if that’s not a sensible option. Republicans often win by making appeals to irrational aspirations, suggesting utopian benefits to crackpot ideas like doing away with the IRS, mandating prayer in public schools, or privatizing social security. The tactic is to make opponents look like dreary defenders of the status quo, lacking vision and imagination. A great many people want to buy into the fantasy and reject the harder reality, despite the inevitable consequences. By harping on 9/11 as the justification for everything from police-state legislation to irrelevant wars to abortion (as Alan Keyes recently suggested), the GOP is taking the role of the dour realist, nagging and scolding the public not to forget difficult lessons, leaving Kerry and the Democrats an opening to implicitly promise to heal the pain of 9/11 rather than continuing to wallow in it.
Wirthlin is right. Bush has a problem. America is less prosperous, less safe, less clean, less free and diminished in the eyes of the world, and these things happened on Bush’s watch. If Kerry doesn’t start asking the question, someone damn well should.
10:24:48 AM 
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