Assume the Position
Sorry, I can’t conceal my disappointment that John Kerry took the bait and yesterday said that he would have voted to support the Iraq invasion even had he known “what we know today” – which is that there are no WMDs, no terrorist connections, no immanent threat and no hope of success. In a very tactical sense, it might be smart to get the issue off the table, since Bush has effectively been trumpeting his stubborn fanaticism on this point as “leadership” and “principle.” However, there’s no getting around that it’s just a dumb thing to say.
The truth about Iraq, as should be clear to anyone who reads informed sources, is that it’s a disaster and getting worse. Violence is increasing, religious extremists control large swaths of “no-go” territory, outside agitators of the worst order from Iran, Saudi Arabia and terrorist groups are running rampant, and the new leadership we’ve just installed looks like Saddam with training wheels. Of the $18B in development funds that Congress (famously minus John Kerry) voted on last year, less than $600M has been spent, meaning that needed improvements are not reaching the Iraqi people. An extensive American troop commitment will be required almost indefinitely, or else the place will quickly spiral into civil war and the hellish category of “failed states.”
These facts face whoever is going to be President in 2005. Bush and Kerry both know it. Though neither is being honest, Kerry is especially unconvincing with his talk of “internationalizing” the burden, as if there were any chance that other countries would touch this tar baby with a barge pole, or that international organizations and multinational forces could be effective even if they were willing to participate. The sad truth is that the only “strategy” for the US in Iraq is to muddle through, with our forces and funds committed indefinitely to prevent outright catastrophe and collapse. Needless to say, no one wants to hear that and no one running for office will say it. But understandable silence on the future is no excuse for propounding stupidity about the past.
About the only thing you can say about Kerry and Iraq is that he didn’t cause the problem. Bush’s excuses to the contrary, attacking Iraq was not some kind of honest mistake. He and his band of zealots ran a raft of stop signs and ignored roomfuls of evidence to push this through both the executive and legislative hurdles. They were determined to make the overthrow of Saddam – a noble goal in and of itself – a far higher priority than it deserved to be in the context of the global struggle against Islamist terrorist groups, and accomplished it at the highest possible price to American interests, lives, dollars and prestige. That is nothing to brag about: it is the definition of incompetence. So when Kerry says he would have done the same thing, that doesn’t exactly inspire confidence.
Like other Kerry supporters, I am hopeful that, as President, he could bring a new, more thoughtful approach, and replace the ideologues at State and Defense with pragmatic people focused on forwarding American interests rather than an extremist neocon agenda. But beyond that, it is foolish to have high expectations about the outcome in Iraq.
8:55:29 AM 
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